Platts pre-report survey of EIA/API estimates suggests 1.6 million barrel build in US oil stocks New York, March 11, 2008 -- Analysts expect US commercial crude oil inventories to show a 1.6 million barrel build when the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and American Petroleum Institute (API) release weekly data on March 12, a Platts survey of analysts indicated on March 11. The EIA/API data is scheduled to be reported on March 12 at 10:30 a.m. ET/15:30 GMT. Crude import levels are expected to show a rebound from last week's abnormally low level of 9.437 million b/d although the steep backwardation in the futures curve will temper refiners' appetite for barrels," said Linda Rafield, Platts senior oil analyst and editor of the weekly Platts Futures & Derivatives Review. Backwardation is when nearby prices are higher than prices for future delivery. Typically oil prices are higher in each successive delivery month because prices must compensate for cost of storage and lost alternative financial opportunities. Refinery utilization or the so-called run rate is expected to increase 0.5 percentage points to 86.4%, based on data from EIA, with restarts overshadowing the start of maintenance in some facilities. Shell's 340,000 barrel per day (b/d) Deer Park refinery restarted multiple units while BP's 475,000 b/d Texas City, Texas, facility was also in the process of starting up units. But Citgo's 156,000 b/d Corpus Christi refinery was in shut-down mode for maintenance. Analysts anticipate a 900,000 barrel decline in gasoline stocks. "Output is not likely to jump given the disparate pricing in the gasoline and heating oil cracks," said Rafield. Crack is the price relationship of the products to the barrel of crude from which they originate. The NYMEX heating oil crack has been running at about a $10/barrel premium to the RBOB crack spread. This refers to the re-oxygenated blendstock from which gasoline is formulated. Gasoline demand has been running at a fairly constant level of about 9.05 million b/d and is not likely to see a pick-up for another month and a half. As for distillate inventories, analysts foresee a decline of two million barrels, in keeping with seasonal trends.
New York, March 11, 2008 -- Analysts expect US commercial crude oil inventories to show a 1.6 million barrel build when the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and American Petroleum Institute (API) release weekly data on March 12, a Platts survey of analysts indicated on March 11. The EIA/API data is scheduled to be reported on March 12 at 10:30 a.m. ET/15:30 GMT.
Crude import levels are expected to show a rebound from last week's abnormally low level of 9.437 million b/d although the steep backwardation in the futures curve will temper refiners' appetite for barrels," said Linda Rafield, Platts senior oil analyst and editor of the weekly Platts Futures & Derivatives Review. Backwardation is when nearby prices are higher than prices for future delivery. Typically oil prices are higher in each successive delivery month because prices must compensate for cost of storage and lost alternative financial opportunities.
Refinery utilization or the so-called run rate is expected to increase 0.5 percentage points to 86.4%, based on data from EIA, with restarts overshadowing the start of maintenance in some facilities. Shell's 340,000 barrel per day (b/d) Deer Park refinery restarted multiple units while BP's 475,000 b/d Texas City, Texas, facility was also in the process of starting up units. But Citgo's 156,000 b/d Corpus Christi refinery was in shut-down mode for maintenance.
Analysts anticipate a 900,000 barrel decline in gasoline stocks. "Output is not likely to jump given the disparate pricing in the gasoline and heating oil cracks," said Rafield. Crack is the price relationship of the products to the barrel of crude from which they originate. The NYMEX heating oil crack has been running at about a $10/barrel premium to the RBOB crack spread. This refers to the re-oxygenated blendstock from which gasoline is formulated. Gasoline demand has been running at a fairly constant level of about 9.05 million b/d and is not likely to see a pick-up for another month and a half.
As for distillate inventories, analysts foresee a decline of two million barrels, in keeping with seasonal trends.