The Platts pre-report analyst survey of EIA/API estimates suggests a 300,000-barrel build in US crude oil stocks
Platts Survey of Analysts
- Crude oil stocks up 300,000 barrels
- Gasoline stocks down 100,000 million barrels
- Distillates stocks up 840,000 barrels
- Refinery utilization, or run rate, up 0.34 percentage point to 85.94%
New York - April 19, 2010
This week's American Petroleum Institute (API) and U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) petroleum data is expected to show a commercial crude stock build of 300,000 barrels for the week ending April 16, analysts polled by Platts said Monday.
API is scheduled to release its data at 4:30 p.m. ET (2130 GMT) Tuesday. EIA's report will be released at 10:30 a.m. ET (1530 GMT) Wednesday.
Some analysts expect crude stocks to fall, while others are looking for an increase.
"Crude supplies are expected to show a small decline largely as a result of some expected modest slippage in imports," independent analyst Jim Ritterbusch said in a report. Ritterbusch was looking for a 1 million barrel stock draw, but also a 1 million barrel build at Cushing, Oklahoma, home of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) light sweet crude oil futures contract delivery point.
On the other hand, Cameron Hanover analysts are expecting U.S. crude stocks to climb by 1.50 to 2.0 million barrels.
”[I]n five of the last nine years, this week has had a substantial increase in refinery utilization rates (2.0% or more). We have also typically increased crude oil imports this week, in anticipation of higher run rates to follow," they said in a report.
U.S. crude stocks fell 2.202 million barrels the week ending April 9, but that followed 10 weeks of steady builds.
Analysts are projecting refinery runs to climb 0.34 percentage point to 85.94%, based on EIA data for the week ending April 9.
In product stocks, analysts polled by Platts were expecting US gasoline inventories to climb 100,000 barrels. As with crude stocks, analysts stand mixed, with some looking for draws and others looking for builds.
"We are looking for gasoline stocks to post a moderate build mainly off of strong Gulf cost production and a possible significant upswing in imports," said Ritterbusch, who is looking for a 1.8-million-barrel-build.
U.S. gasoline stocks have largely been on the decline since mid-February, falling to 221.338 million barrels the week ending April 9 from 232.065 million barrels the week ending February 12, according to the EIA.
Analysts polled by Platts are looking for distillate stocks to climb by 840,000 barrels. Another build would be the third in a row, and could increase the U.S. distillate surplus against the five-year average. The surplus has grown to 29.75 million barrels the week ending April 9 from 24.66 million barrels the week ending March 19.
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