The Platts pre-report survey of analysts’ EIA/API estimates suggest a drop of 2.6 million barrels in U.S. crude oil stocks
Platts Survey of Analysts
- Crude oil stocks down 2.6 million barrels
- Gasoline stocks up 950,000 barrels
- Distillates stocks up 800,000 barrels
- Refinery utilization, or run rate, down 0.4 percentage point to 89.4%
New York - July 12, 2010
Weekly oil data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the American Petroleum Institute (API) is expected to show a 2.6-million-barrel draw in U.S. commercial crude oil stocks for the reporting week ending July 9, analysts polled by Platts said Monday.
API is scheduled to release its data at 4:30 p.m. ET (2130 GMT) Tuesday. EIA's report will be released at 10:30 a.m. ET (1430 GMT) Wednesday.
“Recent production shut-ins and shut-downs should be reflected in the upcoming statistics,” said Linda Rafield, senior oil analyst at Platts. “Last week’s EIA report did not appear to fully reflect the 25% production shut-ins in the Gulf of Mexico and the closing of the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port for two days that occurred during the July 2 reporting week as a result of Hurricane Alex.”
Analysts expect a dip in refinery utilization of 0.4 percentage point to 89.4% based on EIA data for the week that ended July 2.
As for gasoline stocks, analysts anticipate a build of 950,000 barrels. Gasoline output has exceeded 9.3 million barrels per day (b/d), but demand the past two weeks has been well over a robust 9.4 million b/d. Continued high levels of output are expected to keep stocks in the rise. However, it’s typical for demand to edge lower prior to the normal late-drive- season spike that historically occurs in August, Rafield explained.
Middle distillate inventories are expected to build 800,000 barrels, in line with seasonal tendencies. But last week's spike in implied demand* for middle distillates, if repeated, will likely temper any inventory increase.
*Implied demand is the amount of product that moves through the U.S. distribution system, not actual end consumption.
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