Platts pre-report analyst survey suggests US EIA data will show an 78- to 82-Bcf addition in natural gas stocks for the latest reporting week

Washington - July 14, 2010

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is expected Thursday to report a net injection of 78 to 82 billion cubic feet (Bcf) to natural gas storage for the week that ended July 9, according to a Platts survey of analysts.

An injection within those expectations would be smaller than the 88-Bcf build in the same week of 2009 and the five-year-average of 89 Bcf, according to EIA. As a result, the 23-Bcf deficit to last year is expected to expand, while the 285-Bcf surplus over the five-year average is likely to narrow.

Beyond the consensus, injection estimates for the week ending July 9 ranged from a low of 55 Bcf to a high of 90 Bcf.

"The scorching hot weather affecting the Northeast last week will be mitigated by the Independence Day holiday," Kent Bayazitoglu, director of market analytics at Gelber & Associates, said in explaining the availability of gas for storage injection last week. "For the next few weeks injections will continue to decrease as temperatures continue to rise."

Credit Suisse analysts said the storage surplus continues to dampen the gas market despite the record heat in the East. "However, we wonder whether the market is writing off the summer injection season prematurely," they said.

"Given the weather outlook, we think that the string of lower injections over the next few weeks might provide some support for prices."

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This analyst survey is conducted by Platts’ editorial team in Washington, D.C. and is published every Wednesday morning, one day ahead of the 10:30 am (EST) Thursday release of the weekly natural gas storage report of the US Energy Information Administration. Platts has been conducting this survey since January 2007. IMPORTANT NOTE TO EDITORS: The survey results attached above do not contain commentary from a Platts staff member. The survey is conducted and prepared by the Platts market news editors, but the views are those of non-Platts market analysts. The survey includes 15 to 25 analysts, some on a rotational basis. This differs from the weekly pre-report analyst survey of EIA/API US oil stocks data conducted each week by Platts editors, which does include the views of Platts’ editors.

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