The Platts pre-report survey of analysts’ EIA/API estimates suggest a drop of 1.2 million barrels in U.S. crude oil stocks
Platts Survey of Analysts
- Crude oil stocks down 1.2 million barrels
- Gasoline stocks down 870,000 barrels
- Distillates stocks up 1.16 barrels
- Refinery utilization, or run rate, down 0.6 percentage point to 90%
New York - August 2, 2010
Analysts polled by Platts Monday expect the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the American Petroleum Institute (API) to report a 1.2-million-barrel decline in U.S. crude oil inventories for the week ending July 30.
API is scheduled to release its data at 4:30 p.m. EST (2130 GMT) Tuesday. EIA's report will be released at 10:30 a.m. EST (1530 GMT) Wednesday.
Individual analyst projections varied dramatically, however, following a surprise inventory build in the EIA’s report for the week ending July 23. During that week, the EIA reported a 7.36-million-barrel increase in crude oil stocks, as crude imports soared 1.18 million barrels per day (b/d) to 11.15 million b/d, and refinery inputs edged lower.
One analyst, for instance, expects crude stocks to draw by six million barrels, while another is projecting a three-to-four million barrel increase.
"While a common theory has evolved that last week's huge supply build was a result of an import influx ahead of [Tropical Storm] Bonnie, we believe that much of the big hike in stock levels may have been attributable to an arrival of floating cargoes following this summer's narrowing in the crude spread curve," said independent analyst Jim Ritterbusch in a report. "Consequently, surprises could fall toward the bearish side since many observers may be expecting a dramatic draw on supply this week."
Ritterbusch expects a 1.8-million-barrel-crude-stock draw. MF Global Analysts Tom Pawlicki is looking for a large four million barrel crude stock draw.
"We believe that the import jump may have caused a larger increase than was justified, since the API reported a 1.67 [million] b/d increase in imports but only a 3.1 [million barrel] build in crude stocks," he said in a report. "API data suggest that EIA oil stocks are 4.4 [million barrels] too high..."
Cameron Hanover analysts are projecting a three-to-four-million-barrel build in crude stocks, on an expected rise in crude imports and a drop in refinery utilization, or run rate.
An increase in imports would fit in with recent historical data. The five-year average of the EIA data shows a slight increase at the end of July; however, import data can swing wildly week-to-week.
Analysts polled by Platts expect refinery utilization to fall 0.6 percentage point to 90% of capacity, based on EIA data for the week that ended July 23.
"Refinery utilization is likely to decline, as demand isn't strong enough to justify operating rates that are 0.5% above the five-year average," Pawlicki said.
Analysts expect US gasoline inventories to decline 870,000 barrels, with production coming off last week's unusually high 9.648 million b/d figure reported by the EIA.
Analysts project US distillate stocks to climb 1.16 million barrels, in line with seasonal tendencies.
Distillate inventories have been climbing steadily since the end of March, and at 167.513 million barrels the week ending July 23, were 32.04 million barrels above the five-year average, according to the EIA's data.
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