The Platts pre-report survey of analysts’ EIA/API estimates suggest a decline of 2.25 million barrels in US crude oil stocks
Platts Survey of Analysts
- Crude oil stocks down 2.25 million barrels
- Gasoline stocks down 400,000 barrels
- Distillates stocks up 800,000 barrels
- Refinery utilization, or run rate, down 0.5 percentage point to 87.7%
New York - September 13, 2010
Weekly oil data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the American Petroleum Institute (API) is expected to show a draw of approximately 2.25 million barrels in US commercial crude oil stocks for the reporting week ended September 10, analysts polled by Platts said Monday.
API is scheduled to release its weekly data at 4:30 pm EDT (2030 GMT) Tuesday. EIA's weekly oil statistics will be released at 10:30 am EDT (1430 GMT) Wednesday.
“Crude import levels will be the critical factor in this week’s reported data given the steep drop-off seen during the week that ended September 3 as a result of inclement weather along the Atlantic Coast,” said Linda Rafield, Platts senior oil analyst and editor of the weekly Futures and Derivatives Review, a supplement to Oilgram Price Report.“While imports will likely rebound somewhat as a result of Hurricane Earl having waylaid cargoes, the late-week outage of Enbridge's Line 6a due to a leak could have the ability to temper a possible stock-build.” But the Enbridge outage was late Thursday, September 9, and may not show up in this week's oil data, but rather cause a sharp decline in crude imports in the following week's report.
Crude runs are likely to decline 0.5 percentage points to 87.5%, based on EIA data, as driving season ends and ahead of the start of the Midwest harvest. “Crude runs historically start to edge lower ahead of the start of fall maintenance at refineries,” added Rafield.
Analysts project gasoline stocks to decline 400,000 barrels. A decrease in output, which would be in line with historical norms, should erode inventories. Gasoline demand had already declined in EIA's previous weekly oil report, falling 123,000 b/d to 9.263 million b/d.
Stocks of middle distillates are expected to build 800,000 barrels. Two consecutive weeks of stock draws could come to a close as refiners start to switch yields in favor of middle distillates from gasoline.
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