The Platts pre-report survey of analysts’ EIA/API estimates suggest a decline of 1.5 million barrels in US crude oil stocks
Platts Survey of Analysts
- Crude oil stocks down 1.5 million barrels
- Gasoline stocks unchanged
- Distillates stocks up 100,000 barrels
- Refinery utilization, or run rate, down 0.56 percentage point to 87.04%
New York - September 20, 2010
The American Petroleum Institute (API) and US Energy Information Administration (EIA) this week is expected show a US crude oil stock draw of 1.5 million barrels for the week ending September 17, analysts polled by Platts said Monday.
API is scheduled to release its weekly data at 4:30 p.m. EDT (2030 GMT) Tuesday. EIA's weekly oil statistics will be released at 10:30 a.m. EDT (1430 GMT) Wednesday.
Analysts polled by Platts expect a drop in crude imports to outpace an anticipated drop in refinery runs, leading to the crude stock draw.
"Crude supplies are expected to show a minuscule drop mainly as a result of an expected renewed decline in imports and in conjunction with seasonal tendencies," said independent analyst Jim Ritterbusch in a report. "Crude stocks have declined 4 of the past 5 years."
The five-year average of the EIA's data shows a crude stock draw of 367,000 barrels.
The U.S. is well-supplied with crude inventories; a 1.5 million barrel draw would still leave the US at roughly 40.36 million barrels, or 13%, above the five-year average.
Analysts expect refinery runs to fall 0.56 percentage point to 87.04% of operating capacity, based EIA data for the week ending September 10.
"Typically, refineries start autumn maintenance programs shortly after Labor Day and stick with them until Thanksgiving, at which point they usually increase until the end of the year," said Cameron Hanover analysts in a report.
"The fact that the EIA run rate is still a sizable 2.0% above the API guidance increases the odds of a reduction in the government's data," said Ritterbusch. "Runs have decreased in 3 of the past 5 years during this particular week."
Analysts on average project US gasoline stocks to be unchanged on the week, and are expecting a 100,000 barrel build in distillate stocks.
Gasoline demand has fallen two weeks in a row, and will likely continue to decline further as summer gasoline season has come to a close. Gasoline production may also drop as refiners ramp up distillate production ahead of winter heating season.
Gasoline imports have fallen three weeks in a row, to just 644,000 barrels per day (b/d) the week ending September 10 from 1.41 million b/d the week ending August 20, according to the EIA. Even a modest recovery could help balance out lower production and demand.
While gasoline stocks have fallen three weeks in a row, at 224.47 million barrels the week ending September 10, stocks were at a 28.04 million barrel surplus to the five-year average.
The US is well-supplied with distillate stocks as well, although a 100,000 barrel build would fit historical trends. The five-year average shows distillate stocks building until mid-September, after which they decline into the winter months.
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