Platts pre-report analyst survey suggests US EIA data will show an 61- to 65-Bcf addition in natural gas stocks
Washington - November 3, 2010
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is expected Thursday to report a net injection of 61 to 65 billion cubic feet (Bcf) to natural gas storage for the week that ended October 29, according to a Platts survey of analysts.
A build within those estimates would be larger than both the 29-Bcf injection last year and the five-year-average of 26 Bcf for the corresponding week. As a result, the 1-Bcf storage deficit as of last week should flip to a surplus, while the surplus over the five-year-average of 312 Bcf is expected to widen.
Beyond the consensus, the broader range of estimates for the latest reporting week spanned from injections of 55 Bcf to 83 Bcf.
If estimates are correct, storage inventories would surpass 3.8 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) – within striking distance of last year's record high of 3.837 Tcf in the week ending November 27, 2009 – and analysts believe net injections will continue for another couple of weeks.
But Societe Generale analyst Laurent Key said current price conditions favor coal-to-gas switching by electric generators, particularly in the Southeast. If that happens, it would increase demand and lead to significant withdrawals from storage from mid-November through year’s end, “with the oversupply expected to return in January and February amid warmer-than-normal conditions and continued strong domestic production."
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This analyst survey is conducted by Platts’ editorial team in Washington, DC and is published every Wednesday morning, one day ahead of the 10:30 a.m. (ET) Thursday release of the weekly natural gas storage report of the U. Energy Information Administration. Platts has been conducting this survey since January 2007. The survey includes 15 to 25 analysts, some on a rotational basis.
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