Analysis of US EIA data:
New York - December 1, 2010
Total US gasoline stocks edged up 561,000 barrels to 210.153 million barrels during the week ending November 26, while .S. Atlantic Coast (USAC) gasoline levels on the declined 937,000 barrels to 50.763 million barrels – the lowest level since November 2008 – according to data released Wednesday by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). This analysis and commentary is provided by Linda Rafield, Platts senior oil analyst and editor of the weekly Futures and Derivatives Review, a supplement to Platts Oilgram Price Report.
The USAC's New York Harbor is home of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) futures contract delivery point for its benchmark RBOB contract.
The draw in PADD I (Atlantic Coast) was concentrated in conventional gasoline, while RBOB stocks were up just 153,000 barrels to 14.988 million barrels. But inventories were just 911,200 barrels above the five-year average, down from a 8 million barrel surplus at the end of August. Over the same period, USAC RBOB stocks have fallen from a 5.727 million barrel surplus against year-ago levels to a 2.991 million barrel deficit.
But total US RBOB stocks were up 1.612 million barrels to 47.429 million barrels.
Gasoline demand continued to stagnant at relatively low levels, falling 37,000 barrels per day (b/d) to 8.926 million b/d on a four-week moving average. Gasoline demand on a four-week moving average was 48,000 b/d below year-ago levels.
The decline in demand was behind the modest increase in gasoline stocks given that imports tapered off and production was off week-over-week. Gasoline imports dropped 86,000 b/d to 698,000 b/d while output fell 148,000 b/d to 8.795 million b/d.
Total U.S. oil demand on a four-week moving average declined 341,000 b/d to 18.461 million b/d, a seven-month low with decreases registered in every product category. But the drop in demand did little to stop product stocks from declining another 1.109 million barrels to 746.412 million barrels, which left inventories 36.679 million barrels above the five-year average, but 4.288 million barrels below year-ago levels. US product stocks have cumulatively declined 39.173 million barrels over the past eight weeks.
Stocks of middle distillates decreased just 194,000 barrels to 158.057 million barrels, which left inventories 21.412 million barrels above the five-year average, but 7.641 million barrels below year-ago levels. The draw in middle distillates was in heating oil with inventories of ultra low sulfur diesel building for the first time in nearly three months.
US oil stocks have been essentially unchanged the last three weeks as product inventories edged lower while crude stocks increased.
US crude oil stocks increased 1.066 million barrels to 359.691 million barrels the week ending November 26, leaving inventories 34.587 million barrels above the five-year average and 19.792 million barrels above year-ago levels. The build in crude stocks occurred despite a drop of 578,000 b/d to 8.446 million b/d with nearly all the decline occurring on the disconnected West Coast. Crude stocks at Cushing, Oklahoma – home of the NYMEX crude oil futures contract delivery point – increased 910,000 barrels to 34.535 million barrels, the third consecutive build in that region.
*Editor’s Note: Linda Rafield’s commentary is based on her knowledge of market trends, information from industry sources, and her own views as a long-time energy analyst. Please contact Kathleen Tanzy if you require any additional information or would like to interview Linda Rafield.
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